A Projection on 2024 Media Inflation

We all consume media every day in many aspects of our lives. And just as we encounter real world situations in our own day to day, media is also impacted by those same influences. For example, think about the Summer Olympics coming up in a few months. Media schedules change to accommodate this big event. When there are major news stories, good or bad, ratings/ impressions go up around those stories and content. 2024 is going to be a heavy political year with a presidential race.  This will have a major impact on our lives, as well as media during political windows where political advertisers put a burden on sales inventory flooding the markets with millions of dollars.

Another significant real world impact we have all encountered is the rise of inflation over the past few years. Everything from our groceries, interest rates, home values, clothes and so much more has seen major increases YOY. The good news is, as we head into 2024, according to the IMF, US consumer inflation will go down to 2.8% this year and media inflation is expected to follow in some categories. Advertisers are still approaching media investments with caution due to economic and geo-political concerns, ultimately also taming ad spend growth in 2024.

Here are the inflation and spend highlights by category:

Television:

  • TV inflation is significantly lower than previous years due to lower overall demand, with the exception of live sports at an estimated 5.2% inflation.
  • Prime dayparts still see high commercial loads bringing in engaged viewers, while other dayparts are remaining stable/ seeing reductions overall. TV inflation is anticipated to be around an average .6% this year, with cable inflation down -3%.
  • Connected TV hovering at an avg. 3.5% inflation as there is an increased interest in streaming and tightening on the overall inventory.

Digital:

  • Digital media inflation is expected to range between 2.0% and 6.0% and will remain a driving force behind the growth of advertising investment. It is projected to experience higher inflation compared to Linear TV.
  • Industry Specific Update: Retail Media is showing extreme growth in investment volumes emerging as one of the fastest growing sectors within the media landscape, up an estimated 28%+ this year.

Other Media:

  • Digital OOH is experiencing high inflation at 7.5% as inventory and interest grow.

Political:

  • As we head into a political year, there are planned media investment projections between $10 billion- $12 billion, with $3 billion going toward presidential elections and the remaining towards secondary races. Allocation of these dollars and impact of inflation will be focused around battleground states/ markets.

Overall, as inflation begins to level out and see decreases across the economy, media trends will also follow and change. Keep a close eye on media inflation in 2024, as we are entering into an interesting year ahead!

Written by VP Research & Innovation, Halley Firestone

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